The AIM Group

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The AIM Group | 1219 W. Devon Ave. #200 | Chicago, IL. 60660 | 773.764.3400 - Phone | 773.764.3430 - Fax | http://www.aimchicago.com

Serving Principals First!

Last week, the Fed reiterated once again that their Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) purchase program…the program that has helped keep home loan rates low for much of the last year…will end on March 31, 2010 as previously stated. Here’s the lowdown on what this means, and all the latest news impacting home loan rates and the markets.Last Wednesday during their regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. But history has shown that when the Fed has left rates too low for an extended period of time, there is a price to be paid, via higher inflation. Yet if the accommodation is removed too early, it can derail an already fragile recovery. The Fed continues to walk this tightrope, trying to get it “just right.” Along with this decision, the Fed emphasized and reminded that their MBS purchase program will still end on their already revised deadline date of March 31, 2010. Why is this significant? Let’s look at the numbers from last week to get an idea. The Fed purchased $16B in MBS in the latest week bringing the year-to-date total to $1.087T. This means there is $163B left to purchase before March 31, which in turn means the Fed will purchase about $11.5B on average each week through the end of the buying program. This is less than half of what the Fed was buying regularly throughout 2009 and a 1/3 less than what the Fed has been buying in recent weeks. So why does this point to higher rates around the corner? When there is lots of supply and diminishing demand, the price of that item will subsequently go down - it’s Economics 101. So, when Bond prices start to decrease from the diminishing demand of the Fed’s purchases, home loan rates will naturally be likely to increase.

In other news, there was mixed inflation data last week, as the Producer Price Index (which measures wholesale inflation) came in significantly higher than expected. However, the Consumer Price Index was reported in line with expectations, signaling that inflation remains low - at least for now. Inflation will ultimately creep back into the economy - and as the arch-enemy of Bonds and MBS - will also contribute to rising interest rates.Housing Starts for November were in line with estimates and, as you can see in the chart below, the housing sector seems to have stabilized after bottoming out at 458,000 Housing Starts in April. ———————–
Chart: Housing StartsMeanwhile Building Permits, which are a leading indicator of housing construction, reached the highest level seen in the past year. This is encouraging, and the extension of the Home Buyer Tax Credit should provide an added boost for home sales over the next few months.Forecast For The Week

The markets will enter holiday mode later this week, with both the Stock and Bond markets closing early on Thursday and remaining closed all day Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday, but not before several important reports are released. First, we’ll get a read on the housing market with Tuesday’s Existing Home Sales Report and Wednesday’s New Home Sales Report. Tuesday also brings a read on the economy with the broadest measure of economic activity via the Gross Domestic Product Report.There is still more news on Wednesday with the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index, found within the Personal Income Report. With last week’s mixed inflation news, this will be an especially important report to watch. And Thursday could bring some big news just before the markets close by way of the Durable Goods Report, which gives us an update on consumer and business buying behavior on big ticket items that last for an extended period of time. A look at the job market will come with the Initial Jobless Claims Report. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims numbers were higher than expected, showing that the labor market is still struggling.The AIM Group

Serving Principals FIRST

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for mortgage rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 14 - December 18

The AIM Group

Two weeks ago, a new Homebuyers Tax Credit bill was signed into law. The bill extends the tax credit for first-time homebuyers (FTHBs), as well as opens it up to current homeowners who are looking to buy. And even if you aren’t looking to purchase - pass on this article to anyone you think might be in the market to do so. This is information that might benefit them greatly, and we’ll be happy to be of service to them. Here is a brief overview of the Homebuyers Tax Credit - and its benefits - based on the new bill.Tax Credit for First-Time Homebuyers FTHBs (that is, people who have not owned a home within the last three years) may be eligible for the tax credit. The credit for FTHBs is 10% of the purchase price of the home, with a maximum available credit of $8,000. Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount. Tax Credit for Current HomeownersThe tax credit program now gives those who already own a residence some additional reasons to move to a new home. This incentive comes in the form of a tax credit of up to $6,500 for qualified purchasers who have owned and occupied a primary residence for a period of five consecutive years during the last eight years.Single taxpayers and married couples filing a joint return may qualify for the full tax credit amount. What are the New Deadlines?In order to qualify for the credit, all contracts need to be in effect no later than April 30, 2010 and close no later than June 30, 2010. Those in the military do have some special extensions on the timelines available.What’s So Great About a “Tax Credit”?The benefit of a tax credit is that it’s a dollar-for-dollar benefit, rather than a “tax deduction”, or reduction in a tax liability that would only save you $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done. So, if a first-time homebuyer who qualified for the entire benefit were to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for a tax credit of $8,000, she would owe nothing. Better still, the tax credit is refundable, which means the homebuyer can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little or no income tax liability. For example, if a first-time homebuyer is eligible for a tax credit of $8,000 but is liable for $4,000 in income tax, she can still receive a check for the remaining $4,000!Higher Income CapsThe amount of income someone can earn and qualify for the full amount of the credit has been increased. Single tax filers who earn up to $125,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, single filers who earn $145,000 and above are ineligible.Joint filers who earn up to $225,000 are eligible for the total credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial credit. However, joint filers who earn $245,000 and above are ineligible.Maximum Purchase PriceQualifying buyers may purchase a property with a maximum sales price of $800,000.Remember, the new tax credit program includes a number of details and qualifications. Call or email today if you have questions or would like to see if you can benefit from the tax credit.

AIM Realty Group Chicago

The $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit is nearing its end. It is set to expire on December 1st of this year (unless lawmakers renew and/or modify the current bill). NOW is the time to act for all of you homebuyers out there that have been waiting for the “perfect” or ideal opportunity. Call our office: 773-764-3400 or visit our website: http://www.aimchicago.com to start your journey of finding the right home in the Chicagoland area.. at a historically low price.

To see a great youtube video that explains how the tax credit works (in simple terms), please go to: http://www.iarbuzz.com/2009/09/tax-credit-heres-how-it-works/ 

AIM Realty Group Chicago

1219 W. Devon Ave. Suite 200

Chicago, IL. 60660

773.764.3400 - P

773.764.3430 - F

www.aimchicago.com

An index of home builders’ confidence rose in September for the third month in a row, but an industry group said Wednesday the fragile residential real estate market recovery could be cut short if a popular government tax credit isn’t extended.

The National Association of Home Builders said that its Housing Market Index, which it compiles for Wells Fargo, rose one point last month to 19 — the highest level since May 2008.

The index, which fell to an all-time low of 8 in January, has increased steadily in 2009 as the housing market picked up in many parts of the country.

According to NAHB, the rebound in builder confidence is largely due to a temporary tax credit that the government created last year for first-time home buyers. Low mortgage rates and rock-bottom home prices also helped boost confidence, the group says.

The credit, which can be as high as $8,000, was established as part of the government’s economic recovery act to help stimulate demand and revive the battered housing market.

As the market begins to show some sings of life, however, builders are becoming worried that the credit, which is set to expire Nov. 30, will not be renewed.

“The window is now basically closed for being able to start a new home that can be completed in time for buyers to take advantage of the tax credit,” said Joe Robson, NAHB’s chairman and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla, in a statement. “Builders are concerned about what will keep the market moving once the credit is gone.”

To that end, the index component that measures builders’ expectations for sales in the near future fell one point in September to 29, after rising for five months in a row.

More than 1.5 million taxpayers are expected to claim the credit, according to an NAHB spokeswoman.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that the credit has already brought 1.2 million new buyers into the market, including 350,000 buyers who would not have purchased a home without the credit.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Wednesday that the Obama administration is evaluating how the tax credit has impacted home sales and could recommend that the President extend it.

While the tax credit has helped stabilize the housing market, falling home prices are the real reason why sales have begun to rebound, according to Mike Larson, real estate and interest rate analyst at Weiss Research.

“I believe the tax credit is the icing on the cake of this housing market recovery, not the cake itself,” Larson said in a research report.

Indeed, a government report released earlier this month showed that roughly 315,000 people have claimed the tax credit so far. However, industry analysts point out that those figures reflect a small portion of homebuyers who could ultimately claim it.

For buyers interested in taking advantage of the credit, time is of the essence.

Because it usually takes around 90 days to close on a house after a contract is signed, buyers have very little time left to act. As of Sept. 16, 78 days remain before the credit ends.

In addition to uncertainty about the tax credit, builders are also wary about a “critical lack of credit” for new home construction projects and ongoing problems related to appraisals that NAHB says are sinking one quarter of all new-home sales.

“These concerns need to be addressed if we are to embark on a sustained housing recovery that will help bolster economic growth,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe, in a statement.

AIM Realty Group Chicago

An index of home builders’ confidence rose in September for the third month in a row, but an industry group said Wednesday the fragile residential real estate market recovery could be cut short if a popular government tax credit isn’t extended.

The National Association of Home Builders said that its Housing Market Index, which it compiles for Wells Fargo, rose one point last month to 19 — the highest level since May 2008.

The index, which fell to an all-time low of 8 in January, has increased steadily in 2009 as the housing market picked up in many parts of the country.

According to NAHB, the rebound in builder confidence is largely due to a temporary tax credit that the government created last year for first-time home buyers. Low mortgage rates and rock-bottom home prices also helped boost confidence, the group says.

The credit, which can be as high as $8,000, was established as part of the government’s economic recovery act to help stimulate demand and revive the battered housing market.

As the market begins to show some sings of life, however, builders are becoming worried that the credit, which is set to expire Nov. 30, will not be renewed.

“The window is now basically closed for being able to start a new home that can be completed in time for buyers to take advantage of the tax credit,” said Joe Robson, NAHB’s chairman and a home builder from Tulsa, Okla, in a statement. “Builders are concerned about what will keep the market moving once the credit is gone.”

To that end, the index component that measures builders’ expectations for sales in the near future fell one point in September to 29, after rising for five months in a row.

More than 1.5 million taxpayers are expected to claim the credit, according to an NAHB spokeswoman.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this month that the credit has already brought 1.2 million new buyers into the market, including 350,000 buyers who would not have purchased a home without the credit.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Wednesday that the Obama administration is evaluating how the tax credit has impacted home sales and could recommend that the President extend it.

While the tax credit has helped stabilize the housing market, falling home prices are the real reason why sales have begun to rebound, according to Mike Larson, real estate and interest rate analyst at Weiss Research.

“I believe the tax credit is the icing on the cake of this housing market recovery, not the cake itself,” Larson said in a research report.

Indeed, a government report released earlier this month showed that roughly 315,000 people have claimed the tax credit so far. However, industry analysts point out that those figures reflect a small portion of homebuyers who could ultimately claim it.

For buyers interested in taking advantage of the credit, time is of the essence.

Because it usually takes around 90 days to close on a house after a contract is signed, buyers have very little time left to act. As of Sept. 16, 78 days remain before the credit ends.

In addition to uncertainty about the tax credit, builders are also wary about a “critical lack of credit” for new home construction projects and ongoing problems related to appraisals that NAHB says are sinking one quarter of all new-home sales.

“These concerns need to be addressed if we are to embark on a sustained housing recovery that will help bolster economic growth,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe, in a statement.

AIM Realty Group Chicago